Jamie Woodford
LETHBRIDGE HERALD & CP
Dreaming of a white Christmas? That dream just might become reality for Lethbridge this year.
Patrick Cool, meteorologist for The Weather Network, said recent weather trends point to a strong possibility of the fluffy stuff sticking around for the holiday.
"Looking at the temperature trends between now and Christmas there's a very high chance that people out there will definitely see their white Christmas," he said.
Although this weekend's weather forecast of above normal temperatures may melt some of the snow already on the ground, there's also a chance for more snow to fall over the next week.
"(It will be) pretty light, but at the same time that'll add to the snowpack and therefore increasing the chances of that white Christmas," he said.
"Temperatures will be near and around seasonal with the exception being this coming weekend."
Eight to 10 centimetres of snow is average for Lethbridge this time of year, said Cool.
"You actually have about a 50 per cent chance, on average, for white Christmases," he said, noting the definition of a white Christmas is having at least two centimetres of snow on the ground.
Historically, the most snow ever to fall on Lethbridge at Christmastime was an accumulation of nearly 50 cm in 1964.
"Starting around the 10th of December in 1964 through to the 23rd you got almost 50 centimetres of fresh snow, and the temperature was into the minus teens and -20s, so definitely plenty cold and that made for historically the whitest Christmas in Lethbridge history," said Cool.
"And 1968 came in a close second with about 30 centimetres of snow that fell before Christmas. Because of all that snow in '64, that produced the snowiest December on record for Lethbridge."
According to www.theweathernetwork.com, Lethbridge's warmest December day on record was Dec. 8, 1908 when the temperature rose to 19.4 degrees Celsius The coldest day on record was Dec. 18, 1924 with a frosty -42.8 C.
The single day record for snowfall was Dec. 11, 1933 with 23 cm.
Cool added that given the historical statistics, southern Alberta has a very small chance of seeing a "perfect Christmas."
"There's only a four per cent chance of a perfect Christmas, which is what (Environment Canada) considers a Christmas Day where there's at least two centimetres of snow on the ground, and it's snowing as well," he said.
According to Environment Canada, the chance of a white Christmas in other Canadian cities is low, and has been decreasing steadily over the past several decades as the effects of global warming take hold in cities from coast to coast.
Average snow levels show a marked decrease in the likelihood of a winter wonderland on Christmas Day in nearly all regions of Canada, the agency said.
Canadian winters are one of the best places to observe the impact of global warming, said senior climatologist David Phillips, noting that average temperatures have increased nearly three degrees over the last 64 years. That's what's to blame for the diminished snowfall.
The impact of global warming will likely be more dramatic in the coming years as temperatures continue to rise, and the face of Christmas may be changed for good, Phillips warned.
"We're going to have to dream a little harder, I think, to see the kind of things our parents and our parents absolutely took for granted," he said.
"Maybe we'll all be asking Santa Claus for a white Christmas now."